June 21, 2024 12:00pm

Power Poll Political Prediction Roundup

Read on For the Latest Look in the Crystal Ball…

Photo of Bruce Dobie
Nashville, TN Correspondent
 

Here is the latest aggregated wisdom of our esteemed Power Poll Nashville members:

  • Joe Biden will defeat Donald Trump for president;
  • Metro Councilwoman Courtney Johnston will defeat Andy Ogles in the Republican Primary for the 5th Congressional District, dealing a blow to Trump World;
  • Incumbent Mark Green of Clarksville will defeat our former Mayor Megan Barry in the general election for the 7th Congressional District.

As well, consider these other survey tidbits:

  • Plenty of Democratic voters—if they are allowed to do so—will be expected to crossover and vote in the Republican Primary, providing mojo for Johnston and lessening Ogles’ chances at a primary victory.
  • And Nashville Mayor Freddie O’Connell seems to be enjoying his moment in the sunshine. Members overwhelmingly give Hizzoner very high approval ratings, which seems a diversion from our previous three mayors.

Meanwhile, here are the specific questions and answers in this, our June Power Poll. Participation was high. A total of 2,131 members were sent the survey. 935 took part, reflecting a participation rate of 43.88%.

CONTEXT

This prediction business is fraught with peril, but more often than not, Power Poll members seem to get them right. A smart bunch, these Power Poll members.

The contest in the Republican Primary between Andy Ogles, the incumbent who will be expected to do extraordinarily well in the rural counties that include his base in Maury County and other speciously populated counties that are decidedly pro-Trump, is quite fascinating. Johnston has mounted a serious campaign, raised serious money, and enlisted some serious GOP moderates who, here in Davidson County, actually do still exist.

We asked, in concert with this who-will-win question, whether Democrats might be expected to crossover and vote for Johnston in the Republican Primary. While most think that will happen, it should be noted that the ability of voters to crossover is not completely settled and the courts have been thrown that question. That’s a big if. Stay tuned on that very important judicial test.

As to the Megan Barry vs. Mark Green contest in the 7th district, Barry has also mounted a well-financed challenge against Green, but in this particular case most think Green will remain the victor in the general election.

As to the presidential race, which seems razor thin and up-for-grabs, members say it’s Biden. A quick look by this writer at recent polls posted at Real Clear Politics and 538 indicate that Biden is in fact closing what appeared to be a deficit.

But frankly, the presidential contest is a long way away. An important debate between the candidates looms in a matter of days, and while the chattering classes seem to be saying, as they always do, that this debate as THE MOST IMPORTANT DEBATE IN AMERICAN POLITICAL HISTORY, the truth is that it very well may be so. Both men are old, prone to verbal stumbles, and not entirely in command of their physical and intellectual selves. So it’s anyone’s guess who shows up and sets the bar for the rest of the campaign.

Closer to home, Power Poll asked members to rank the performance of Mayor O’Connell who has been in office since September of last year. With “0” as unimaginably bad, and “10” as wildly fabulous, O’Connell brought home a 7.3. Pretty damn good.

O’Connell just passed his first budget, which did little to endear him to liberals for whom government spending sometimes seems doctrinaire. Rather, the budget was a tempered definition of spending within Metro’s means with a few sparklers thrown in for good measure. The business community had to be pleased the mayor didn’t opt for a handful of bold, aggressive and expensive plans. Of course, there’s his transit plan, but even that proposal is much more modest than earlier plans.

O’Connell did not seem to miss a beat upon taking the oath of office, sliding confidently into his role. In this he has been guided by years and years of service within the bowels of Metro Government. There’s also his sizable intellect. He just seems to know everything. It is far too early to say where our computer-geek Ivy Leaguer will wind up in the Metro history books, but judging by his current track record it is likely that he has course-corrected this city’s awesome ability to select very good chief executives. After former Mayor Karl Dean, we seemed to miss a few beats. The last three had problems, some of their own making and some not. But our history of picking reasonable, solid, forward-thinking mayors is something of which we can all be proud. O’Connell seems to be making us proud once again.

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About Power Poll: Power Poll asks questions of the most powerful, influential people in U.S. cities. It is not a scientific survey. But because the people responding to the surveys comprise the leadership structure of their cities, the results afford a fascinating glimpse into the thoughts, opinions, and beliefs of those in a position to make change. Power Poll is distinctly nonpartisan.

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