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Warren on a Roll in New Hampshire

Sanders Flat, Biden Falling, and all others meeting minimal expectations

New Hampshire Political Power  |  September 11, 2019 1:00pm  |  By Bruce Dobie

Warren on a Roll in New Hampshire article image

Elizabeth Warren is crushing it, according to the latest New Hampshire Political Power Poll, with 52% of respondents predicting she will place first in the Feb. 11 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary.

This represents continued upward trajectory for Warren, the neighboring U.S. senator from Massachusetts. In our first New Hampshire Political Power Poll, taken in July, 32% of respondents predicted she would place first. In the second poll, taken in August, 39% of respondents had her placing first.

Meanwhile, the good news keeps on keeping on: Warren also takes the cake when Power Poll members are asked who has the best on-the-ground organization in New Hampshire. 61% of respondents say her team in New Hampshire gets the gold star.

The numbers have to be worrisome for Joe Biden, the moderate former vice-president. Ever since Power Poll began surveying New Hampshire, he's been on a downhill slide. In July, 32% of Power Poll members were predicting a Biden victory. In August, that had fallen to 25%. And now, in September, only a less-than-robust 14% see him placing first. Part of that might have a very rational explanation—when New Hampshire Power Poll members are asked who has the best ground game, Biden didn't get a single vote.

As to Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, he was relatively flat compared to previous Power Polls. In this latest survey, 16% were predicting a Sanders victory, compared to 17% in August and 13% in July.

NOTE: The Power Poll is not a scientific poll. It is, instead, a glimpse into the thoughts and opinions of New Hampshire's elected officials (Republicans and Democrats alike), party leaders, important fundraisers, media figures, consultants, and more. To see the list of individuals who were polled, click here. 826 individuals were surveyed, and 97 responded, for a response rate of 11.74%. The poll was taken Sept. 4-9, 2019, all by email.

Here are the complete questions and answers to the New Hampshire Political Power Poll. Plans are to poll monthly so that we can track the trajectory of the candidates over time until the primary is held. If a candidate received no votes in a particular question, the candidate was not listed.

Question #1: The New Hampshire primary will be held Feb. 11. Looking into your crystal ball, who do you think will place first among the Democrats?

Elizabeth Warren: 52% (32% July, 39% August)

Bernie Sanders: 16% (13% July, 17% August)

Joe Biden: 14% (32% July, 25% August)

Pete Buttigieg: 4% (3% July, 1% August)

Cory Booker: 2% (3% July, 2% August)

John Delaney: 2% (0% July, 0% August)

Tulsi Gabbard: 2% (0% July, 1% August)

Bill de Blasio: 1% (0% July, 0% August)

Julián Castro: 1% (1% July, 1% August)

Marianne Williamson: 1% (0% July, 2% August)

Don't Know: 4% (14% July, 6% August)


Question #2: Who will place second?

Joe Biden: 23%

Bernie Sanders: 20%

Elizabeth Warren: 20%

Pete Buttigieg: 11%

Kamala Harris: 10%

Cory Booker: 2%

Beto O'Rourke: 2%

Steve Bullock: 1%

Julián Castro: 1%

John Delaney: 1%

Tulsi Gabbard: 1%

Amy Klobuchar: 1%

Tim Ryan: 1%

Marianne Williamson: 1%

Andrew Yang: 1%

Don't Know: 4%


Question #3: Who will place third?

Joe Biden: 25%

Bernie Sanders: 25%

Pete Buttigieg: 14%

Elizabeth Warren: 9%

Cory Booker: 5%

Kamala Harris: 5%

Amy Klobuchar: 2%

Andrew Yang: 2%

Julián Castro: 1%

John Delaney: 1%

Tim Ryan: 1%

Marianne Williamson: 1%

Don't Know: 8%


Question #4: Which candidate has the best on-the-ground campaign organization?

Elizabeth Warren: 61% (57% July, 47% August)

Bernie Sanders: 15% (11% July, 11% August)

Pete Buttigieg: 8% (1% July, 2% August)

Tulsi Gabbard: 5% (3% July, 2% August)

Cory Booker: 2% (4% July, 5% August)

Julián Castro: 1% (1% July, 1% August)

Marianne Williamson: 1% (0% July, 1% August)

Don't Know: 6% (18% July, 23% August)