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Warren Is Crushing It

Former VP Biden remains in second

New Hampshire Political Power  |  October 11, 2019 11:00am  |  By Bruce Dobie

Warren Is Crushing It article image

Elizabeth Warren continues to dominate the crowded pack in the October New Hampshire Political Power Poll, with 53% of respondents predicting she will place first in the Feb. 11 Democratic presidential primary.

Conclusion: You come with a plan, you crush it. Nor can it hurt when your leading competitor on the progressive left goes down with chest pains. Just talking reality here.

Known for her extensive policy positions and overarching argument that "the system" needs a massive reboot, the Massachusetts senator also claimed bragging rights in this Power Poll for having the best "on-the-ground" campaign organization.

50% of respondents said she had the finest organization, with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and "Mayor Pete" Buttigieg placing second and third respectively on that question. Only 3% of voters said Biden had the best organization in the state.

What adds gasoline to the fire for Warren is that the margin of her victory in this survey is so large. Whereas 53% of respondents said she will place first in the survey, the candidates who placed next in that question were Biden, who received 18% of the vote, and Sanders, who received 9%.

NOTE: The Power Poll is not a scientific poll. It is, instead, a glimpse into the thoughts and opinions of New Hampshire's elected officials (Republicans and Democrats alike), party leaders, important fundraisers, media figures, consultants, and more. To see the list of individuals who were polled, click here. 815 individuals were surveyed, and 102 responded, for a response rate of 12.52%. The poll was taken Oct. 6-10, 2019, all by email.

Here are the complete questions and answers to the New Hampshire Political Power Poll. Plans are to poll monthly so that we can track the trajectory of the candidates over time until the primary is held. If a candidate received no votes in a particular question, the candidate was not listed.

Question #1: The New Hampshire primary will be held Feb. 11. Looking into your crystal ball, who do you think will place first among the Democrats?

Elizabeth Warren: 53%

Joe Biden: 18%

Bernie Sanders: 9%

Tulsi Gabbard: 8%

Pete Buttigieg: 4%

Tom Steyer: 2%

Andrew Yang: 2%

Cory Booker: 1%

Julián Castro: 1%

Marianne Williamson: 1%

Don't Know: 2%


Question #2: Who will place second?

Joe Biden: 28%

Elizabeth Warren: 28%

Pete Buttigieg: 14%

Bernie Sanders: 8%

Tulsi Gabbard: 4%

Andrew Yang: 4%

Tom Steyer: 2%

Marianne Williamson: 2%

Julián Castro: 1%

Kamala Harris: 1%

Amy Klobuchar: 1%

Beto O'Rourke: 1%

Tim Ryan: 1%

Joe Sestak: 1%

Don't Know: 4%

Question #3: Who will place third?

Bernie Sanders: 27%

Joe Biden: 16%

Pete Buttigieg: 14%

Cory Booker: 8%

Amy Klobuchar: 6%

Tulsi Gabbard: 5%

Kamala Harris: 4%

Elizabeth Warren: 4%

Beto O'Rourke: 2%

Marianne Williamson: 2%

Andrew Yang: 2%

Michael Bennet: 1%

Julián Castro: 1%

John Delaney: 1%

Joe Sestak: 1%

Don't Know: 7%


Question #4: Which candidate has the best on-the-ground campaign organization?

Elizabeth Warren: 50%

Bernie Sanders: 15%

Pete Buttigieg: 8%

Tulsi Gabbard: 7%

Joe Biden: 3%

Cory Booker: 3%

Tom Steyer: 3%

Andrew Yang: 2%

Julián Castro: 1%

Marianne Williamson: 1%

Don't Know: 8%