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Elizabeth Warren falls but stays on top

Meanwhile, Buttigieg climbing, climbing, climbing

New Hampshire Political Power  |  December 13, 2019 10:00am  |  Power Poll Reports

Elizabeth Warren falls but stays on top article image

Elizabeth Warren fell in the expectations game this month, but 29% of New Hampshire's political insiders are still predicting she will place first in the state's Feb. 11 presidential primary. This was down from 45% in November—a significant fall, but not so significant as to have someone beat her. She remains on high.

Meanwhile, as the Power Poll members were asked to select the candidate they thought would win, 19% of Power Poll members picked "Mayor Pete" Buttigieg, a clear gain from the prior monthly Power Poll that showed him with 11% of respondents

As to the other frontrunners, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders garnered 19% of the vote of those thinking he would place first, and former VP Joe Biden got 16% of those thinking he'd place first. Sanders and Biden were both essentially flat from the last poll. Worth noting is that back in July, over 30% of respondents were predicting Biden would win the primary. And so do the mighty fall.

What does it all add up to?

With Warren coming under fire as the putative frontrunner, her numbers are dropping, and as they fall, the pack becomes muddled. If she drops any further, the race will become genuinely jumbled and incomprehensible to the discerning political eye. One immutable positive for Warren in New Hampshire is she does have geography going for her; the fact that she represents Massachusetts obviously counts for something and will never go away.

Meanwhile, an always significant question asked in the Power Poll is which candidate has the best on-the-ground campaign organization. Warren typically wins this question hands-down, and this month was no exception. 46% named her as being the best organized, with Sanders at 18%, Buttigieg at 17%, and Biden at 4%.

Meanwhile, for the ever curious political junkies out there, former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg, who is spending lavishly and has all but written off the early primary and caucus states, registered barely a blip in any of the questions.

 

ABOUT THE POWER POLL

 

The Power Poll is not a scientific poll. It is, instead, an insightful look into the beliefs and opinions of the elected officials, party activists, political consultants and pollsters, and others who are close to the contest. A total of 798 people were queried. 83 responded, for a response rate of 10.4%. To see the complete list of New Hampshire Political Power Poll members, click here.

 

Here are the specific results:

 

Question #1: The New Hampshire primary will be held Feb. 11. Looking into your crystal ball, who do you think will place first among the Democrats? (Editor's Note: If a candidate did not receive any votes, he or she was not listed in the results.)

Michael Bennet: 1%

Joe Biden: 16%

Michael Bloomberg: 1%

Cory Booker: 5%

Pete Buttigieg: 19%

Tulsi Gabbard: 5%

Amy Klobuchar: 1%

Bernie Sanders: 19%

Elizabeth Warren: 29%

Andrew Yang: 1%

Don't Know: 2%

 

Question #2: Who will place second?

Joe Biden: 18%

Cory Booker: 2%

Pete Buttigieg: 24%

Tulsi Gabbard: 2%

Amy Klobuchar: 4%

Bernie Sanders: 17%

Tom Steyer: 1%

Elizabeth Warren: 28%

Andrew Yang: 2%

Don't Know: 1%

 

Question #3: Who will place third?

Michael Bannet: 1%

Joe Biden: 20%

Michael Bloomberg: 1%

Cory Booker: 1%

Pete Buttigieg: 22%

Tulsi Gabbard: 4%

Amy Klobuchar: 4%

Deval Patrick: 2%

Elizabeth Warren: 16%

Andrew Yang: 4%

Don't Know: 4%

 

Question #4: Which candidate has the best on-the-ground campaign organization?

 

Joe Biden: 4%

Cory Booker: 4%

Pete Buttigieg: 17%

Tulsi Gabbard: 2%

Deval Patrick: 1%

Bernie Sanders: 18%

Elizabeth Warren: 46%

Andrew Yang: 2%

Don't Know: 6%

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