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Bernie to place first in New Hampshire

Poll also shows Warren placing second, Biden third

New Hampshire Political Power  |  January 17, 2020 10:00am

Bernie to place first in New Hampshire article image

Power Poll members predict a Bernie Sanders victory in the Feb. 11 New Hampshire Primary, with Elizabeth Warren placing second and Joe Biden placing third.

These are the latest results of the New Hampshire Political Power Poll in what will be the last poll taken before the Feb. 11 New Hampshire presidential primary.

In the survey, Power Poll members were asked whom they thought would place first, second, and third. The results showed 41 percent of the respondents picking Sanders to place first, 29 percent picking Warren, and 11 percent picking Biden.

Meanwhile, another question asked respondents to declare which campaign they thought had the "best on-the-ground campaign organization." 46% of the respondents selected Warren, placing her clearly above the rest of the field. Sanders was second as having the second best campaign organization (23%) and Buttigieg third (16%).

The Power Poll is not a scientific survey. It is, instead, a fascinating glimpse into the insights and opinions of leading power brokers and influencers in New Hampshire. Members include elected officials, important political consultants, influential members of the media, party chieftains, and more. The full list of New Hampshire Power Poll members can be seen here.

793 individuals were surveyed and 70 responded, for a response rate of approximately 9%.

Before are the complete results to the survey. But first, some analysis.

ANALYSIS

With the primary season set to explode, and winners and losers soon to be declared, it's worth mentioning that in our companion Power Poll in Iowa, political insiders there feel as if Joe Biden is likely to place first, followed by Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, and Klobuchar. Politics being a dynamic art, the results in Iowa are more than likely to spill into New Hampshire. Momentum will be critical and important.

But as a stand-alone analysis, the margin by which political insiders in New Hampshire think Sanders will win New Hampshire is large. It's much larger than the margin by which Iowa's political insiders think Biden will win Iowa. So, Sanders has got to be considered the credible favorite at this point in time according the people central to the New Hampshire Primary.

Two camps of Democratic voters have emerged in the 2020 election. There are the voters who favor revolution and nominating a candidate who will make wholesale systemic change to the nation. And then there are those who favor beating Trump and nominating the person best equipped to do so. To those in the latter camp, policy and revolution play second fiddle to simply doing what it takes to defeat the incumbent.

All of which is to say, in New Hampshire, at the present moment, voters like the policies espoused by nearby Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. And so, let the revolution commence.

The New Hampshire primary will be held Feb. 11. Looking into your crystal ball, who do you think will place first, second, and third among the Democrats? (Editor's Note: If a candidate did not receive any votes, he or she was not listed in the results.)

Which candidate has the best on-the-ground campaign organization?

Joe Biden: 3%

Pete Buttigieg: 16%

Tulsi Gabbard: 1%

Amy Klobuchar: 1%

Deval Patrick: 1%

Bernie Sanders: 23%

Tom Steyer: 1%

Elizabeth Warren: 46%

Don't Know: 7%

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