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Your Predictions about Election 2020

A Clear Conclusion

Healthcare  |  July 18, 2020 6:00am  |  By Joel Lee

The 2020 Presidential election is still four months away. Polls generally show Joe Biden with a growing lead over President Trump. Despite that widening advantage for Biden, political pundits continue to say it will be a horse race all the way up to election day. 

 

You, the nation’s healthcare industry leaders, seem far more certain of the outcome than the pundits. The large majority predicted a victory for Vice-President Joe Biden. Three in four of you forecast a Biden victory. When asked what the margin of victory would look like, fully one in three saw Biden winning by more than 5%, 21% by 3 to 5% and 21% by less than 3%. Just over 20% thought a Trump margin of victory would be less than 3%. Less than 5% of those polled thought Trump would win by 3 to 5%. No one predicted Trump would win with a margin of more than 5%.

 

What would be the likely make-up of Congress following the election? Just under two-thirds (63%) predicted that Democrats would hold majorities in the House and Senate. One third believed that Congress would remain divided with Democrats in control of one house and Republicans the other.  Only 4% predicted Republican control of both houses of Congress.

 

Healthcare industry leaders, of course, won’t determine the election’s outcome but the poll reported here may offer some broad index of how the industry will direct its campaign contributions and political influence in the coming months.

 

The Affordable Care Act continues to be challenged in the courts.  Twenty Republicans state attorneys general seek a Supreme Court determination of its continued constitutionality and seek to overturn the ACA. About 13% of the panel believe the Supreme Court will overturn. Just over 83% felt the Court would uphold. Only 5% thought the case would once again be remanded to lower courts.

 

Would the Court’s decision likely be a factor in the 2020 election?  Almost 90% of the respondents predicted the Court’s decision would be rendered after the November election suggesting there would be a moderated impact on the election of this challenge to the ACA. 

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