What's Next for COVID 19
When will we see a breakthrough?
The April Healthcare Power Poll asked industry leaders to forecast which of several potential breakthroughs in managing the COVID 19 outbreak might occur first. 36% of the panel felt that the first breakthrough would be the development of a quick self-administered test for coronavirus anti-bodies. Following closely, 29% thought an effective therapeutic was the most likely, possibly reflecting the positive early recognition for remdesivir. Only 21% forecast that the first breakthrough would be a vaccine. Less than 15% thought automated contact tracing with mobile technology would be first.
Fully 64% predicted that one of these breakthroughs would occur in the third Quarter of 2020. 22% saw the breakthrough occurring in this quarter (Q2 2020) and 14% saw it occurring in Q4 2020.
The good news is that the panel is certain (79%) that we have reached the peak of the current outbreak. Only 21% did not believe we had reached the peak.
The bad news? Everyone forecast a second wave of the outbreak. The great majority (70%) predicted the resurgence would occur in Q4 2020. 7% thought the next wave would happen in Q3 2020 and just over 20% thought the second peak would come after the first of the year 2021.