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Predictions: Court Challenges to the ACA and the next implantable device

How do health care leaders see the future

Healthcare  |  November 11, 2019 11:00am  |  By Joel Lee

The Affordable Care Act has been under siege from the day it was signed into law nearly a decade ago. The most recent challenge to its survival is a suit brought by 20 red state attorneys general. The suit seeks to overturn the law now that Congressional action has removed the individual mandate penalty.  

The 5th Circuit is expected to rule any day. We asked how you predicted this would unfold. Just over 4 in 5 of you (84%), believe that the ACA will survive in one way or another for the time being. Nearly half (48%) predicted the 5th Circuit would uphold the ACA and the 20 attorneys general would press for further appeal.

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Just about a quarter of respondents thought the 5th Circuit would overturn and the case would ultimately be decided in favor of the ACA by the Supreme Court.  

12% felt that the 5th Circuit would uphold the ACA and there would be no further appeal. This likely reflects the view that 20 red states' governments would not want to enter the 2020 election cycle with such an immediate fate of health care coverage for 23 million Americans at risk.

A surprising one in six (16%) of the respondents thought the 5th Circuit would overturn the ACA and the decision would be affirmed by the Supreme Court either by direct decision or by declining certiorari.

The second part of our October Power Poll looked at the prospect of new implantable devices, for renal failure, for diabetes and for amputated limbs. The panelists were quite positive in general about the near term prospects for the full range of implantable devices. A full 84% believed that at least one of these devices would be in standard use before 2040. Just over 72% predicted it would happen before 2030.

We were also interested in which of these implants was most likely to be developed first. In this, the panel was nearly perfectly divided with 28% +/- for an implantable pancreas, an implantable kidney and for a fully sensate prosthetic limb.